Solar Cycle Prediction Using Precursors and Flux Transport Models
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Solar cycle prediction using precursors and flux transport models
We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the az-imuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which contains a source term describing the emergence of new flux based on observational sunspot data. We consider the magnetic flux diffusing over the equator as a pre-dicto...
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Large-scale solar dynamo models were first built by Parker (1955). Over the past half a century these models have evolved significantly. We discuss here the development of a class of large-scale dynamo models which include, along with the α-effect and Ω-effect, an important third process, flux transport by meridional circulation. We present the properties of this ‘flux-transport’ dynamo, includ...
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The sunspot solar cycle has been usually explained as the result of a dynamo process operating in the sun. This is a classical problem in Astrophysics that until the present is not fully solved. Here we discuss current problems and limitations with the solar dynamo modeling and their possible solutions using the kinematic dynamo model with the Babcock-Leighton approximation as a tool. In partic...
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[1] We construct a solar cycle strength prediction tool by modifying a calibrated flux-transport dynamo model, and make predictions of the amplitude of upcoming solar cycle 24. We predict that cycle 24 will have a 30–50% higher peak than cycle 23, in contrast to recent predictions by Svalgaard et al. and Schatten, who used a precursor method to forecast that cycle 24 will be considerably smalle...
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Motivated by observed anomalous features in cycle 23, as inferred from records of photospheric magnetic flux, we develop a flux transport dynamo–based scheme in order to investigate the physical cause of such anomalies. In this first study we focus on understanding anomalies occurring in the polar field evolutionary pattern in cycle 23, namely, why the polar reversal in cycle 23 was slow, why a...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Astrophysical Journal
سال: 2007
ISSN: 0004-637X,1538-4357
DOI: 10.1086/512049